Background analysis of this aim over different scenarios



In the early 2013, the then Prime Minister of UK –
David Cameron announced to hold an in/out referendum on UK’s membership of the
European Union. On February 20th, 2016 he set the date for the vote
to be held on June 23, 2016. Over 30 million people participated in the voting
process with a 51.9% voting to Leave the European Union (Brexit). Post the
voting results, the country has been going through a period of uncertainty –
right from Cameron’s resignation followed by a re-election process electing
Theresa May as the Prime Minister and eventually the snap election where the
ruling party lost its strength in the house by a margin alongside a lot of
debates, news, meetings between the leaders on both the sides.

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In the meanwhile, the Supreme Court of UK ruled on
Article 50 granting the right to final vote to the UK Parliament on the final Brexit


The current UK Prime Minsiter – Theresa May marked the
beginning of Brexit process by triggered the Article 50 in March 2017 by
formally informing the European Union about Britain’s decision to leave it,
thereby beginning the two-year period during which the UK has to negotiate the
terms of its exit, transitional arrangements and variety of other issues
including future trade, status of EU citizens already inside the UK and British
Citizens in other countries and border issues with Ireland.


There have been many estimates about the potential
impact of UK’s exit on its GDP, Employment, Immigration and Trade relationships
but we will only know in future depending on the eventual form of Brexit and
the ability of UK to develop new trade partners outside of EU.



Aims and Objectives:


Research aim :


This proposal aims to study the implications and
effects on UK in a situation wherein UK formally quits the European Union
(Brexit). This will involve analysis of this aim over different scenarios of
exit (soft / hard Brexit) that may play out based on the information we have so
far. Each of these scenarios would have different outcomes for the UK and will be
analysed in detail.


Given the complexities involved in the negotiations
and a number of issues needing debate, negotiations and resolutions between UK
and EU, it still remains to be seen as to how the final Brexit deal will look
like. Therefore, scenario analysis will be an useful tool, because, it will
allow us test various assumptions and their impact.


Research objective(s) (the more specific
research aims) :

The objective of the research is to study the effect of
Brexit on UK particularly for its GDP, Employment, Immigration and Budget. Further,
the paper will also try to examine how the Brexit is likely to shape up in the
future and the areas concerning it. The aim is to identify key issues that need
to be addressed by UK which could facilitate a smooth transition and explore if
there are any possible wins out of this decision that could be accrued. The
paper will study the background of EU with reference to UK’s membership, the
benefits UK has reaped out of the same and the changes that are likely to
affect these benefits post Brexit while also exploring the possibilities of
UK’s enhanced relationship with other emerging economies with favorable trade


Possible research questions and/or hypotheses (each
research question could have one of more hypotheses. However, there should not
be more hypotheses than research questions).

1.       What kind of a deal is Britain likely to sign with
EU post its exit from the union?

2.       What will be the effect of Brexit on UK over medium
to longer term timeline for areas with particular references to key
macro-economic indicators like GDP Growth Rate, Inflation, Unemployment figures

3.       What will be the implications for the government’s
balance sheet in terms of the Costs or Benefits accrued due to Brexit

4.       How will Brexit affect the net immigration to UK?

5.       What will UK need to do in order to be able to
thrive and prosper being a non-member of the EU



(Part II)      Rationale and Contribution


Description of Topic

The papers focus is on the topic of Brexit – the
process of UK’s departure as a member of European Union. While the British
people have already voted in favour of Leave and the actions of triggering
Article 50 along with other developments in UK suggest enough evidence to
believe that Brexit is due to happen. I have attempted to study the way Brexit
is likely to happen – what are the various options / scenarios likely to play
out and their implications for UK.



Rationale for choice of Topic

UK’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) is believed
to have profound significance in terms of its impact on various countries,
sectors, companies, individuals and future trade arrangements. There have been
numerous debates on Brexit which has been on the headlines and cover pages of
media all over since over two years, particularly after June 2016 when the
voting was held and results announced.

I believe Brexit is an important subject, which needs
to be analysed in detail. While there have been a number of reports from
various think tanks on this subject, I believe there is a gap in terms of
availability of research that can provide a big picture analysis giving a brief
background, likely way forward and the impact of them.

This paper will attempt to present a clear picture of
all that has happened so far and the likely way forward along with its impact on
UK over medium to long term.



Literature Review (Primary
source: Original research from journals, articles or conferences, original
materials such as historical documents; Secondary source: Evaluations, reviews
or syntheses of original work; Tertiary source: Broadly scoped material put
together usually from secondary sources to provide an overview, e.g. a


A number of research reports by EU Think Tank
and various other universities, academicians and firms is available for review.




Quite a lot of literature that have appeared
in the headlines generally have put up figures in terms of potential loss of
GDP of an “X%” by 2025/2030. While some of these headlines look exciting, while
some scary, the primary focus of this paper’s literature review is to throw
clarity on these headlines to the audience by explaining them the underlying
analysis and assumption behind such studies. The key to literature review on
Brexit is to understand the underlying assumptions made by the authors
particularly in terms of the form of Brexit assumed, which in turn decides on
the important factors like barriers on trade, immigration and investment.