Introduction/Background: demonstrate called her page on Facebook, no

Introduction/Background:

The Syrian Civil War, which began in the city of Daraa, where
security (according to the story of opposition activists) arrested 15 children
after writing slogans calling for freedom and demanding the overthrow of the
regime on the wall of their school on 26 February 2011. In the midst of that
there was a call to demonstrate called her page on Facebook, no one knew who
was behind it a group of activists responded to them on Tuesday March 15, 2011
These protests were against tyranny, repression, corruption and suppression of
freedoms and the arrest of Daraa children and the humiliation of their parents
according to the Syrian opposition, while supporters of the regime see it as a
conspiracy against the axis of resistance and the spread of chaos in Syria for
the benefit of Israel in the first place, and some activists from the
opposition calls on Facebook to demonstrate on the ground in an unprecedented
challenge to the rule of Bashar al-Assad affected by the wave of mass protests
(known In the name of the Arab Spring), which broke out in the Arab world in
late 2010 and the beginning of 2011, especially the Tunisian revolution and the
January 25 Egyptian revolution. The protests have been launched against
President Bashar al-Assad and his family, which has ruled the country since
1971 under the cover of the Baath Socialist Party under the emergency law since
1963. These protests led a number of young Syrians who demanded political,
economic and social reforms and raised the slogan: But the Syrian security
forces, the Syrian intelligence and pro-regime militias (known as Shabihah)
were confronted with live ammunition and the slogan became “the people
want to overthrow the regime.” While the Syrian government announced that
these incidents of the execution of militants and terrorists would destabilize
national security and establish an Islamic emirate in some parts of the
country. The march of the so-called Syrian revolution on March 18, under the
slogan “Juma al-Karama”, led to demonstrations in the cities of
Daraa, Damascus, Homs and Banias, and was brutally met with security in Daraa.
Four people were killed by the Syrian security forces in that city. Around the
age of the mosque and other parts of the city, rights groups said it had killed
100 protesters by the end of the week. On 25 March, demonstrations were held
for the first time in dozens of Syrian cities under the theme of “Jum’a Al
Azza” to include Jibla, Hama, Lattakia, and several areas in Damascus and
its villages such as Hamidiyah, Marja, Mezzeh, Qaboun, Alksuwa, Darya, Tal,
Duma and Zabadani.

Execution of
War/Timeline:

On March 31, Bashar al-Assad delivered a speech in his first
public appearance since the protest movement began, but demonstrations
continued to come out. Under increasing pressure, the Syrian president issued
on April 7 a legislative decree granting citizenship to thousands of Kurdish
citizens in Syria after being deprived of them for decades. On April 14, a new
government was formed for the country instead of the old ones who resigned the
previous month. Bashar al-Assad finally announced on April 21 the lifting of
the state of emergency in the country after 48 consecutive years of imposition.

On April 25, the Syrian army launched large-scale military
operations in Daraa and Duma, the first of its kind, killing dozens of people,
human rights organizations say, most of them civilians due to the siege and
shelling of the towns and villages surrounding them. A week later, the army
began operations in Banias, and then days later in Homs, killing more
civilians. On May 14, the army launched a similar crackdown on Tallak, which
was condemned by several human rights organizations. Amnesty International
accused him of months of committing crimes amounting to crimes against humanity
in the course of his operations. On May 28 another campaign began in the cities
of Rastan and Talbessa, which killed about 100 people. On June 3, tens of
thousands of demonstrators gathered in Al-Assi Square in the city of Hama,
central Syria. The security forces opened fire on them, leaving more than 70
dead. This is known as the “Friday massacre of the children of
freedom”. And launching large security operations there, especially the
city of Jisr al-Shughour and Jabal al-Zawiyah, have seen other operations
starting June 4.

On Sunday, July 31 (the first night of Ramadan), the Syrian
army launched operations in many cities throughout Syria, most notably Hama,
Deir al-Zour, Bu Kamal and Al-Hayak. This is the day of the bloodiest protests
so far. More than 150 people were killed in these cities. Of the hundred of
them in Hama alone, and followed the siege of the cities of Hama and Deir
al-Zor lasted for weeks. On August 15, the military and security forces
launched military operations in the city of Latakia, which led to the killing
of more than 50 people over four days. On August 18, there was an unprecedented
escalation in the positions of Western countries of protests. Five months after
condemning repression and calling for reforms, France, Britain, Germany, the
European Union, Canada and the United States of America simultaneously
announced that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad should step down immediately
after he “lost” Full legitimacy “. In early June, after the
escalation of the cracks in the Syrian army over three months, the formation of
the first military organization unites these military, the (Free Officers
Brigade) under the leadership of Hussein Hermush, followed two months by the
announcement of the formation of the Free Syrian Army led Raid by Assad, The
two organizations for the implementation of dozens of operations by them
against the Syrian army for months before the brigade joined the Free Officers
with the Free Army in mid-September, but the army did not fight any real battle
until the end of that month when the outbreak of the battle of Rastan and
Talbisa and start violent clashes with him The Syrian Army Killing dozens of
both sides.

Some Key Events and
Terms:

v  Syrian Protests: This label was
adopted at the beginning of the general demonstrations from Daraa and Homs in
protest against the practices of the ruling authority in Syria.

v  The Syrian Intifada: Some writers
used this name and some still use it, because the demonstrations took the form
of a general popular uprising between cities and rural areas.

v  The Syrian Revolution: This label is
used by all the demonstrators and civilian activists, the foreign political
opposition and some internal opposition, and the armed fighters against the
ruling authority in Syria.

v  The Syrian Civil War: This
designation is used by many international bodies and European countries, in
addition to a number of research centers and the international media.

v  The Syrian Crisis: This designation
is used by some countries and organizations that are friendly to the ruling
authority in Syria, in addition to the moderate or neutral current of the
Syrian people.

v  The conspiracy against Syria: This
designation is used by Syria and its supporters at home and abroad.

Key Cause of the
Escalation of War:

Political and
economic reality:

In general, throughout the 11 years of Bashar al-Asad in
power, the regime has been maintained as it is in the role of the Baath Party
in the “leadership of the state and society”. The ruling family and
its relatives control sensitive joints, state of emergency, arrest opposition
figures, and the lack of political opposition on the ground and in
institutions, and the prevention of demonstrations and restrictions on the
establishment of parties, associations and civil society institutions, as well
as arbitrary detention, military trials, and the file of political detainees.

Although the country in its era is gradually shifting from
the socialist model to the pluralistic
economic model or the market economy, which has achieved growth and
contributed to the improvement in the income rate, the economy has continued to
suffer great pains. According to official statistics published in the National
Human Development Report “In 2005, 41.5 percent of all citizens are below
the poverty line and their income is less than $ 2 a day. Poverty rates in
rural areas are particularly high e.g. Aleppo. This is a result of education.
According to the same statistics, only 32% of students attend secondary
schools. Of the 2 million young Syrians of university age, only 250,000 attend
universities. In turn, unemployment is high and market employment is focused on
weak competencies and low incomes.

The labour force in Syria is growing at a rate of 300
thousand students per year and is considered one of the highest in the region.
This is offset by the weakness of the ability to create jobs in the labour
market, which led to the acceleration of migration abroad, especially among the
youth, where 75% of the unemployed In the country whose age is less than 25
years. Unemployment, according to
government estimates for 2005, was 8.4%, and the percentage was questioned
independently by 12%. In addition, 35% of university graduates work outside
their competence, with the failure of the employment offices and the General
Organization for the Elimination of Unemployment to reduce this phenomenon, in
addition to the spread of the phenomenon of “disguised unemployment”
in the public sector.

The society also suffered from a very large economic gap
between the middle class and the wealthy class.

The beginning of the
military confrontations and the Arab initiative in the Syrian crisis:

In early June, Lt. Col. Hussein Harmoush announced his
dissent from the Syrian army and established the first military organization
for dissidents, which he called the Free Officers Movement. On 29 July, a
second organization, the Free Syrian Army, was established. But the Free Army
did not fight until September 27 when the battle of Rastan broke out between
him and the regular army, which lasted about a week, and ended with his
temporary withdrawal from both cities.

On 29 October, the army began firing heavy machine guns at
the neighbourhood in the city of Homs in the wake of violent clashes between
the regular forces and the Free Syrian Army at the President’s Round about in
the nearby Bab al-Saba’a neighbourhood. More than 17 security personnel and
these night clashes destroyed two army vehicles and wounded dozens of soldiers.

Following these events, heavy artillery and rocket launchers
began shelling Baba Amr on 3 November. The shelling continued for four days,
killing more than 100 people, amid the siege of the neighbourhood and food
shortages. Human Rights Watch accused the regime of committing crimes against
humanity in Homs during the campaign. On November 8, however, the regular army
was able to enter Baba Amr, thus ending the battle by regaining control of the
area, which had become a stronghold of dissidents from the army. Following this
campaign, the General Authority of the Syrian Revolution announced November 11
the day of the general strike in Syria “in solidarity with Homs”.

On November 16, the Free Syrian Army announced its first attack
on a regular military installation since the protests began, attacking the Air
Intelligence Headquarters in Harasta. In conjunction with the escalation of
military confrontations, the Syrian government on November 2 approved the
League of Nations which provides for the withdrawal of the army from the
cities, the release of Sisi prisoners and dialogue with the opposition. With no
commitment to the genocide, the university suspended Syria’s membership on
November 16 and imposed economic sanctions on it. On December 19, the Syrian
government accepted the deployment of observers from the League of Arab States
in the country.

Battles:

The battle of Ghouta and some of its suburbs broke out on
July 15, followed by the Damascus volcano and the Syrian earthquake, which
included a bombing that targeted the Syrian national security building and
killed elements of the regime, such as Defense Minister Dawood Rajha. On 22
July, the Tawhid Brigade began the battle of Aleppo; while the opposition
fighters could only control some of the suburbs of southern Damascus, they in
Aleppo were able to enter wider areas up to ancient Aleppo; however, the
ferocity of the clashes led to the displacement of the population and massive
destruction. That each of the two groups could establish final control over the
area; unlike the countryside, the Free Army was able to exert its influence in
a stable and frequent manner on some of its towns such as Izzaz and some
important border points such as the Tel El Abyad crossing; To announce the
transfer of the command centre from Turkey into Syria itself. As for the
countryside of Damascus, the regular army tried to restore the suburbs of
southern Damascus and some areas of Damascus countryside. The Daria massacre
took place during the military campaign. At the same time, the explosions and
targeting inside Damascus intensified. On September 26, for example, a bombing
in the General Staff building near the Umayyad Square, Situation Lack of
political horizon for the solution resigned Kofi Annan, and was succeeded by
Lakhdar Brahimi.

2015 Role of Russia:

In August 2015, news was circulating that the Syrian civil
war was over, as US President Barack Obama thanked Russian President Putin for
his positive role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations. In the same context, Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: Russia (finally) abandoned Syria, while
Saudi Arabia claims that Iran gave up Bashar.

Russia condemned the American plan to give air cover to the
forces trained to fight a preacher in Syria.

After Saudi Defense Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman
visited Moscow, Ali al-Mamluk, head of Syrian intelligence, visited Riyadh with
Russian mediation. News of the Saudi intelligence chief’s visit to Damascus
appeared.

International
Reactions on Civil War:

Most statements by world leaders focused on reform and
condemnation of violence and repression. US
President Barack Obama called on his counterpart Bashar al-Assad to
“lead the transition in his country or step aside.” The United States, the European Union, Canada
and Australia imposed sanctions on
Syrian officials including Bashar al-Assad, including freezing assets and
preventing entry into their territories. Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said
there was no balance of Syrian officials abroad.”

The Turkish position,
which sought on 6 April to help “to ensure the prosperity of the Syrian
people and enhance its security and stability”, and then tightened its
tone on June 10 as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan described what was
happening in Syria as “atrocities” and accused the Syrian regime Not
to act humanely towards the protesters against it. While the European countries
in the UN Security Council (i.e. France, Britain, Germany and Portugal)
submitted a draft resolution condemning Syria, but failed to reject China,
India, South Africa and Lebanon and hint at Russia to use the “veto” in the face of any
decision.

In return, Bashar al-Assad received support from Iran, Venezuela
and Hezbollah for what they saw as a
Western conspiracy to destabilize a government that supported the resistance.
In the Arab countries, the kings, Bahrain, Jordan, the Emir of Kuwait, the
Prime Minister of Iraq and the President of Lebanon contacted the President and
affirmed their support for the regime. The UAE sent its Foreign Minister to
Damascus, Only in the Kuwaiti National Assembly 25 of the 50 MPs signed a
petition calling for the expulsion of the ambassador and severing ties with
Syria. Amr Moussa said that the Arab
League had received a request to freeze Syria’s membership without giving
more details. The Human Rights Watch said that the Syrian regime had committed
a series of “systematic” violations against the hostile protesters,
putting them in the category of crimes against humanity, and that the United
Nations should hold the Syrian government accountable.

Human Rights
Violation:

The Human Rights Council also voted on a resolution
condemning Syria for human rights violations and demanding an independent
commission of inquiry.

Hours after an attack by supporters of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad on the US embassy in Damascus, US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton announced that the regime of Bashar al-Assad has lost its legitimacy,
adding that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not indispensable and that the
United States is not interested in the survival of his regime Power.

But Bashar al-Assad’s regime has received widespread
condemnation from many Western countries following the Syrian army’s invasion
of Hama, Deir al-Zour and Bu-Kamel, and in this context emerged the position of
Russia, which called on Assad to stop the use of violence against civilians.
Germany and Italy also called on the UN Security Council to hold a closed-door
meeting to discuss the events in Hama as the European Union imposed new
sanctions on the Syrian regime. The most prominent Arab positions came from
Egypt, which expressed concern about the violence in Syria and called for a
political solution.

How does Assad see
the “civil war” in Syria?

Is he a scammer or a president fighting for his country’s
interest? As Syria enters its Seventh year of conflict, what is President
Bashar al-Assad’s responsibility for his country’s crisis.

During an exclusive interview with the BBC in Damascus, He
asked about explosive barrels, which contained a mixture of incendiary and
explosive materials dropped by the Syrian armed forces in areas controlled by
the opposition, which also happens in civilian areas.

But there are a lot of shots showing explosive barrels being
dropped, and you can see some of them on the BBC website. There are also many
eyewitness accounts.

I saw, as many saw, the effects of those attacks. In my case,
the incident was in Douma, controlled by the opposition, and the bombing
destroyed two adjacent buildings in a residential area.

Explosive barrels are dropped aimlessly. Which makes it a
weapon that kills indiscriminately?

International
humanitarian law
calls on warring parties to make every possible effort to protect civilians.
Therefore, dropping unexploded barrels without a target cannot be considered
among those efforts.

Assad, of course, rightly pointed out that the opposition is
attacking the government, taking over land and killing civilians without
discrimination. Death came with wars. Again this is true. But the mistake of
two sides does not make what they do right. The purpose of international
humanitarian law is to regulate the use of force to protect non-combatants.

Assad’s comments on the explosive barrels may have targeted
his supporters at home, knowing that the interview would be broadcast on Syrian
television and the BBC.

He may have been indifferent to the media outside of Syria,
whose statements are greeted with scepticism as I describe them with elegance.
Lion’s personality is polite, and he enjoys a friendly nature.

The president may believe what he says. His generals may tell
him he does not kill civilians and he believes them. Perhaps he is a scornful
liar. I do not know. It’s just a guess.

Since he inherited his post from his father Hafez al-Assad in
2000, diplomats, journalists and anyone interested in Syria have spent a lot of
time exploring Bashar. Many questions have been raised over the past 15 years
on a central issue: Is Bashar al-Assad already in office?

At the beginning of his presidency, Bashar faced
difficulties. His father was a prominent and tough man. He came from a poor
background and emerged as a star in the air force and the Baath Party and came
to power during a military rule in 1963. By 1970 he took power in the country.

Since the end of French colonial rule in the 1940s, Syria has
been unstable and has swung from coup to coup. Hafez al-Assad was able to pass
power to his son, but he is not the son prepared for this task.

Bassel, Bashar’s elder brother, was supposed to succeed his
father in power, but in 1994 he was killed in a car accident he was driving
quickly and crashed as a result of fog on the way to Damascus airport.

Bashar al-Assad was a doctor, not a soldier, and when he came
to power, he was not as interested as his older brother and his father.

Bashar spoke about reform. He seemed to forget the past.
Western leaders sought to establish friendly relations with him. Tony Blair, Britain’s former prime
minister, thought of giving him a knighthood. But Assad did not stop his
opposition to Israel and his support for Israel’s enemies.

Security estimates:
Assad is at its weakest

After the Battle of Aleppo ended, Bashar al-Asad became increasingly
dependent on his allies Foreigners, and were forced to accept the loss of areas
of land Opposition pockets will not be able to crush them. Victories achieved
in the battlefield; the rule of Assad, However, the Ruwais influence and the
Iranians increased the account of Bashar’s army mainly due to Russian warplanes And to Shiite militias supported and financed
by Iran. Studies show that Bashar is aware that he is obliged to equip himself
with more of support from Royce and Erin if he wants more land to maintain and
secure them, which means that they will have to balance Ambitions and
ambitions. With the fall of Aleppo, the opposition will have to change its
tactics Conventional warfare into guerrilla operations and suicide bombings and
pressure in areas controlled by the regime, which will put Assad in front new
challenges he may not be able to deal with. Despite the costly victory in Aleppo,
the battle was reinforced.

The sectarian
dimension of the shepherd, and the isolation of the Bashar community, deepened
and contributed to More Syrians have been displaced, and the economic crisis
has worsened Including the Damascus regime under Western sanctions imposed on
it a year ago 2011, as Bashar’s inability to rule over the Badr deepens, and
his power is combined to manage the structure of a failed state whose future
has no danger On regional security and international security. And preparations
for the anticipated battle of tenderness and the attack Surprisingly, in order
to organize a “call” in the city of Palmyra, Bashar Assad’s forces
appeared It is not ready for any military action, and it seems that its limited
resources will not He was able to carry out any process of the Great Shawl, and
it would not be His interest in wasting his limited military resources was a
desperate attempt Recovery of the Eastern Desert Areas or the Euphrates Valley.
A security source quoted an official in Damascus as saying: “Assad has
been excluded Raqqa Governorate at present, which has become a major impediment
to the organization The Islamic state in Syria, and the radical organization is
a problem Washington has solved it, “the official added And make it the
responsibility of the Americans, let those who bother them go Organizing an
advocate for eradication. To achieve further military gains after Aleppo,
Bashar Assad Is forced to become accustomed to Moscow’s air force and to the
wind power Made available to him by Iran and the Shiite factions that sponsor
it, and her head is university “Hezbollah”,
but these militias have suffered losses And appeared in the Ankara negotiations
on Tuesday 20 December That they wish to reach a cessation of hostilities
agreement and a strict ownership agreement Bashar has made it clear to open new
fronts at present.

Aftermaths of Civil
War:

War Crimes:

Number of war crimes happened during the war by forces and
opposite groups by killing hundreds and thousands of innocent people including
foreigners.

Chemical Weapons:

Hundreds of people were killed in Aug 2013 after rocket
attack on Damascus. After that threatened from United States intervention
President Assad agreed to abolish all chemical weapons.

Humanitarian Crisis:

From last few years world face the largest humanitarian
crisis as 4.5 million people fled from Syria to other countries of the world.
Bordering Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have struggled to cope with one of the
largest refugee exoduses in recent history.

Conclusion:

I think that Bashar is aware of what he is doing. Syria is
the main concern of the Assad family and he inherited the leadership of the
country. But there is a consensus on his rule, family and friends have
permanent interests and a great voice.

The best guess to me, given what he told me, is that Bashar
al-Assad believes strongly in a battle to keep everything he cares about, and
anyone can use this idea to justify any major deal.

As for the way the rest of the world looks at him, I do not
think Assad pays any attention but the future of him is in big risk he should
take some sensible steps.